- Global losses from natural disasters remained slightly below the ten-year average
- A severe double earthquake in Venezuela claimed thousands of lives and caused losses in the billions
- Virtually impossible without climate change: record-breaking heatwaves in North America and Europe are putting people at risk and slowing down economies
- Looming “Super El Niño”: extreme weather conditions feared in many regions of the world
Morristown, NJ (Aug. 3, 2026) – In the first six months of 2026, natural disasters caused worldwide losses estimated at nearly US$ 112bn. Of those losses, only US$ 44bn were insured, representing an insurance gap of 60%. Losses were slightly below the inflation-adjusted average figures for the first half of the year over the past ten years (overall losses: US$ 113bn; insured losses: US$ 50bn), but significantly below the 5-year average figures (overall losses: US$ 136bn; insured losses: US$ 66bn).
The most destructive natural disaster was a double earthquake in Venezuela on 24 June. In a matter of minutes, two powerful earthquakes with magnitudes 7.2 and 7.5 struck about 200 km west of the capital, Caracas, near the town of Morón. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), it was the most powerful quake to hit this highly earthquake-prone region since 1900. Thousands of people lost their lives. According to preliminary estimates, total losses are expected to be in the region of US$ 30bn, including insured losses of less than US$ 1bn.
For insurers, severe thunderstorms in the US were the biggest driver of losses in the first half of the year. However, with total losses of around US$ 30bn and insured losses of US$ 22bn, the damage caused by the thunderstorms in the US was below the average figures for the past ten years (total losses: US$ 34bn; insured losses: US$ 26bn). Yet the tornado and hail events being well within expected ranges would have actually indicated higher losses.
The first half of the year has provided a welcome breather from previous years of high natural disaster losses. But climate change and growing exposure persist, increasing the risk of larger losses in the future. The best way for society to reduce losses is to stop building in high-risk areas and to keep investing in prevention.
Thomas Blunck, Member of the Board of Management
Heatwaves exacerbated by climate change
Record-breaking heatwaves dominated the first half of the year in North America and Europe. Scientists now speak of “record-shattering temperatures”, as in many places, the new highs have far exceeded previous records. This particularly affected large parts of Central and Western Europe in June. In the town of Möckern in eastern Germany, for example, a temperature of 41.8°C was recorded – 0.6°C above the country’s previous high, set in 2019. It should also be kept in mind that June usually isn’t the hottest month of the year. Monthly temperature records had already been broken in Europe during an initial heatwave in May.
Studies show a clear link between heatwaves and climate change. With regard to Europe, a study found that the most recent heatwave would have been around 3.5°C cooler if it had happened 50 years ago. Europe is the fastest-warming continent and is warming at more than twice the global average rate.
According to another study, during a heatwave in the US in June, the combination of temperature and humidity reached levels that would have been virtually impossible without climate change. Sweltering heat is considered particularly stressful and dangerous for humans and animals alike. In many places across the eastern US states, the temperature barely dropped below 27°C (around 80°F), even at night.
Heatwaves are now regarded as the natural hazard that claims the most lives. In Germany alone, heat-related deaths between April and June are estimated to have exceeded 5,000, according to the Robert Koch Institute. It is difficult to quantify the financial impact of heatwaves, as they do not usually result in any direct damage to property. Instead, the damage is chiefly caused by falling productivity and production standstills, but also by damage to infrastructure, transportation breakdowns, and crop failures.
An OECD study based on company data from 23 developed economies concluded that labour productivity falls significantly during heatwaves and on extremely hot days. With ten additional days of temperatures above 35°C, annual labour productivity falls by an average of 0.3%. This is roughly equivalent to the effect of a 5% rise in energy prices. And heat stress even increases when humidity is higher.
Super El Niño is expected to change weather extremes worldwide
The second half of 2026 is also expected to be shaped by the climate phenomenon El Niño, which tends to produce even higher temperatures and influences extreme weather events in many regions of the world.
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle known as ENSO (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation). This cycle involves periodic changes in temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific, which can affect weather patterns around the globe.
In many regions – such as Australia, Central America and southwestern Africa – El Niño is increasing the risk of drought and wildfires. In western South America, parts of Brazil, and the southwestern US, on the other hand, it can lead to an increase in heavy rainfall accompanied by flash floods. El Niño dampens the hurricane season in the North Atlantic, but enhances tropical cyclone activity in all parts of the North Pacific, including the Northwest Pacific.
El Niño tends to cause higher global mean temperatures – on top of the higher temperatures already caused by climate change. Global mean sea surface temperatures are already at record levels. In terms of global mean temperature, 2024 currently holds the record, at around 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels – and was influenced by El Niño. Much as is the case now, back then El Niño began in the course of 2023 and continued to have a significant impact well into the following year.
Current forecasts point to record-breaking El Niño conditions towards the end of the year. El Niño phases usually last between six months and a year, often peaking around the end of the calendar year.
Tobias Grimm, Munich Re’s Chief Climate Scientist, warns: “It’s a dangerous mix: as global warming continues, the world is also heading for a Super El Niño, which will drive temperatures up even further. The effects will likely be clearly felt in the second half of the year. Taking timely precautions saves lives and limits the economic damage caused by disasters.”
North America’s H1 2026 in figures
In North America, natural disasters had caused total losses of around US$ 47bn by June, US$ 34bn of which were insured. Both were below the average for the past ten years.
The costliest natural disaster in North America in the first half of the year was a large severe thunderstorm outbreak triggered by a strong frontal system over the central United States. The April event swept across several states in the Midwestern US, reaching as far south as Texas. Around 100 tornadoes were recorded, including a destructive EF4 tornado – the second-highest category – with wind speeds of up to 290 km/h (180 mph). The losses amounted to US$ 5.8bn, around US$ 4.1bn of which were insured.
Three winter storms, bringing heavy snowfall and frost between January and March, were also among the costliest natural disasters of the first half of the year. In total, their losses amounted to nearly US$ 11bn, of which around US$ 7.7bn were insured. A storm at the end of January was particularly severe. Initially coming from the Pacific, it brought huge amounts of snow, frost and icy conditions to large parts of the US and Canada, stretching across most of the eastern half of the continent. Arctic air masses can push far to the south over North America, as there are no east-west mountain ranges to block the cold, dense air mass.
As of the end of June, this year’s hurricane season in the North Atlantic had – apart from one weak tropical cyclone (Arthur) – been quiet, as is typical during El Niño phases. However, powerful hurricanes can occur even under El Niño conditions. Hurricane Andrew from 1992 is one example. It devastated south Florida, prompting the insurance sector to rethink the nature and frequency of particularly severe storms due to the unexpectedly high losses. The inflation-adjusted damage caused by Hurricane Andrew still ranks among the 10 tropical cyclones with the highest losses on record, despite occurring during an El Nino year.
Additionally, in the southern United States, El Niño typically increases the likelihood of above-average rainfall, raising the risk of flash floods and river flooding.
About Munich Re
Munich Re is one of the world’s leading providers of reinsurance, primary insurance and insurance-related risk solutions. The Group consists of the reinsurance and ERGO fields of business, and the asset manager MEAG. Munich Re is globally active and operates in all lines of the insurance business. Since it was founded in 1880, Munich Re has been known for its unrivalled risk-related expertise and its sound financial position. Munich Re leverages its strengths to promote its clients’ business interests and technological progress. Moreover, Munich Re develops covers for new risks such as rocket launches, renewable energies, cyber risks and artificial intelligence. In the 2024 financial year, Munich Re generated insurance revenue of €60.8bn and a net result of €5.7bn. The Munich Re Group employed about 44,000 people worldwide as at 31 December 2024. For more information, please visit www.munichre.com.
Disclaimer
Munich Re’s NatCatSERVICE collects information from governmental agencies, scientific institutes, associations, the insurance industry, the media and other publicly available sources in order to analyse nat cat losses. NatCatSERVICE applies Munich Re’s comprehensive in-house nat cat expertise and market data from the worldwide insurance markets to its analyses. Munich Re assumes no guarantees as to the accuracy of this data, which is collected as of specific dates and can also change at any time. The information may not be used as the basis for any decision without prior professional advice and careful contextual analysis. Munich Re is not liable for damages arising from any decisions that third parties may take on the basis of this information.
Market loss estimates from similar events cannot serve as the sole basis for estimating Munich Re’s share, as the loss pattern and underwriting strategy in the respective regions may differ from event to event.
This media release contains forward-looking statements that are based on current assumptions and forecasts of the management of Munich Re. Known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the forward-looking statements given here and the actual development, in particular the results, financial situation and performance of our Company. The Company assumes no liability to update these forward-looking statements or to make them conform to future events or developments.
SOURCE: Munich Re
Tags: Munich Re, Natural Catastrophes, natural disaster losses, protection gap, reinsurance
