Business Barometer®: Small business confidence crept up in September

Toronto, ON (Sept. 30, 2025) – The long-term small business confidence reached 50.2 in September, finds the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)’s Monthly Business Barometer®.

“The subpar optimism we’ve been seeing speaks volumes about the current uncertain business environment. Business owners have hardly been positive this year, and it’s not surprising given the trade and economic uncertainty, declining demand, and rising operational costs,” said Simon Gaudreault, Chief Economist and Vice-President of Research at CFIB.

Average price plans stand at 2.7% and wage plans at 2.2%. The weakness in the labour market continues, with 12% of firms looking to hire in the next few months and 18% considering layoffs.

“Based on our data, it does not look like the labour market will strengthen anytime soon. The share of businesses with hiring plans remains below its usual seasonal pattern, while more and more firms have stated layoff plans in recent moments, significantly exceeding seasonal patterns,” said Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics at CFIB.

Tax and regulatory costs remain top of mind for 67% of small firms, followed by insurance costs (66%). More businesses reported facing difficulties with wage costs (66% in September vs 59% in August). Weak demand also persists for over half (55%) of businesses.

In the wake of post-labour disruptions, 20% of businesses reported challenges distributing their products.

The share of businesses struggling with capital equipment and technology costs has reached a record high of 36%. CFIB’s upcoming report on small business adoption of technology and AI will show how investing in digital tools and equipment can significantly boost productivity and help businesses become more efficient.

“With the pace of tariff announcements slowing down a bit and the discussion shifting to how Canada can durably adjust to a new trade and policy environment, we may be entering a new phase on the economic calendar. Meanwhile, business owners report that there are still many fiscal, regulatory and labour challenges that prevent them to contribute to the economic recovery. Certainty, stability and confidence remain in short supply and sending the right policy signals this fall could help turn the tide,” Gaudreault added.

Methodology

Business Barometer®: September findings are based on 752 responses from a stratified random sample of CFIB members, to a controlled-access web survey. Data reflects responses received from September 3-10, 2025. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 3.6%, 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting weaker performance.

About CFIB

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners’ chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.

Source: Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)